fantasy football draft-day manifesto – 2019 fantasy football mock draft: ff calculator 5/10/2019

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El lunes 8 de julio de 2019, mi padre, David, volvió a los 21 años.

Y el jueves 18 de julio de 2019, el Manifiesto del Día del Proyecto volvió a los 21 años de edad.

Estoy consiguiendo ambos en Las Vegas. ¡Disparos por todos lados!

Cuando me senté a escribir esto un día después de celebrar el cumpleaños de David, me di cuenta de que la coincidencia de esta columna tenía la misma edad que mi hijo y, sí, comencé a reflexionar.

Fue una interesante dos décadas y un año.

He visto al equipo nacional femenino de EE. UU. Ganar tres Copas Mundiales, he visto 23 películas en el Universo Cinematográfico Marvel y he sobrevivido al Y2K. Cuando comencé a escribir esta columna en 1998, los Toronto Raptors aún no habían llegado a los playoffs y tuvieron un promedio de solo 22.5 victorias por temporada durante los primeros cuatro años de su existencia. Vi a Tom Brady con un promedio de 200 estrellas por juego en su última temporada en Michigan y lo he visto ganar seis Super Bowls desde entonces. He visto que los correos electrónicos van de algo por lo que te emocionaste demasiado cuando escuchaste «¡Tienes correo!» se preguntan si alguna vez huyen de los príncipes nigerianos que quieren enviarme suerte.

He visto al fútbol de fantasía convertirse en una forma viable de vivir, lo vi llevarme de Los Ángeles a Bristol y trabajar con ESPN, donde conocí y luego me casé con la madre de David. He visto a muchos niños de lacrosse, juegos de básquetbol y fútbol, ​​he visto llaves y bailes, he visto novios y rupturas. He visto vacaciones familiares, graduaciones y el nacimiento de las hermanas gemelas de David. Y he visto a David llevarlos a su primer baile escolar a petición de ellos, y me sorprende que todavía esté vivo porque mi corazón estalla esa noche.

Más gente juega en ESPN que en cualquier otro lugar. Únete o crea una liga en el Nº de juego de fútbol. 1 Fantasía! Regístrate gratis!

He visto a David comenzar a jugar fútbol de fantasía, lo he visto graduarse en la escuela secundaria y lo estoy viendo viviendo en la ciudad de Nueva York mientras trabaja como interno antes de su año de la escuela secundaria

Él está creciendo, cambiando, convirtiéndose en un hombre joven y pronto estará en el mundo real. Es un arreglo orgulloso y amable para mí, y una madre y yo todavía estamos en proceso de producción con diversos grados de éxito.

Y así es con este anhelo por el pasado, que abarca el futuro que pasamos a mi próximo hijo de 21 años, el Manifiesto del Día del Proyecto. Mientras que el Manifiesto acumula su identidad falsa y mira con orgullo el casino, encontrará algunas ideas y teorías actualizadas pero clásicas que los lectores antiguos encontrarán familiares. Sin embargo, hay muchos que son nuevos este año también. Incluirá mis pensamientos generales sobre la estrategia de fantasía y la teoría de la fantasía, una base básica para construir un equipo del campeonato de calibre y mientras competía solo con miles de suscriptores de RotoPass.com que ganaron su liga en la temporada En el pasado de nuestras herramientas y clasificaciones, también habrá una promoción de autoservicio de primer nivel.

También hay un nuevo formato donde daré una guía para cada ronda de un borrador estándar de ESPN, muchas búsquedas actualizadas y al menos una nueva broma. (Nota del editor: Esto no fue así).

Así que bienvenidos, viejos y jóvenes amigos, en la 21ª edición de Parar el corazón, el fracaso del conocimiento, el ADP-balanceo, bromas, estrategias, tímido, dormir, Springsteen- Robando, desafiando, legendario DIAGRAMA MANIFIESTO.

Comencemos, como siempre lo hacemos, con la parte más importante de consejos de fantasía de fútbol que puedo dar.

En un nivel básico, el fútbol de fantasía se trata de minimizar el riesgo y darte las mejores oportunidades de ganar semanalmente.

Eso es Que simple Desde este artículo hasta el final de tu temporada, lo único que debes hacer es volver a esa regla muy simple, pero que rara vez se sigue. Cada sitio del proyecto, cualquier movimiento de renuncia, posible intercambio, decisión de comenzar / bajar, y cualquier otro movimiento.

Todo

Hago esto todos los años, porque con los revestimientos de paredes de fantasía de pared a pared en estos días (incluido este artículo muy largo), es fácil olvidarlo.

En julio de 2018, no tuvimos la idea de que el abogado defensor de los Chicago Bears, Akiem Hicks, terminaría el año con los astilleros más calientes de Le Von Bell. Que Adrian Peterson, un agente de registro gratuito, terminaría con 1,042 yardas precipitadas, o solo 12 menos que Dalvin Cook y Leonard Fournette combinados. Patrick Mahomes, con solo un juego en su haber como motocicleta, duplicará la cantidad de goles marcados por Aaron Rodgers. Que en las semanas 16 y 17, las semanas de campeonato en las ligas estándar de ESPN, no habría más puntos de fantasía que C.J. Anderson, quien fue cortado previamente por dos equipos de la NFL y estaba sentado en su cama un mes antes. Este Zay Jones terminará con más puntos de fantasía que A.J. Verde. Este Tyler Lockett de 5 pies y 10 años terminará con 39 en las expectativas, pero quinto en el touchdown. Esta decepción perenne Eric Ebron y Jared Cook terminarían los cinco primeros en una posición cercana, cada uno anotando 60 puntos más que Rob Gronkowski.

2 similares

No puedo predecir el futuro.

Usted no puede

Nadie mas

Entonces, todo lo que puede hacer es minimizar el riesgo, darse las mejores oportunidades para llegar a cada semana, hacer la mejor llamada que pueda en este momento y dejar que las fichas vayan donde pueden.

Si solo obtienes una cosa de este artículo, hazlo. Lo repetiré una vez más, porque es importante:

En un nivel básico, la clave del éxito en el fútbol de fantasía es minimizar el riesgo semanalmente para que tengas las mejores posibilidades de ganar.

Por cierto, si acabas de conseguirlo. dos las cosas de este artículo hacen eso y mi aplicación Fantasy Life es una fuente gratuita e increíble de algoritmos de fútbol de fantasía súper rápidos e incluye fanáticos de fantasía fantásticos que te darán impresiones instantáneas. En tu equipo, los posibles movimientos y así sucesivamente. (Oye, ya tengo el complemento RotoPass.com). En serio, la aplicación solo es válida para alertas. Hay una razón por la que estamos en 4.8 estrellas en la App Store. Es 100% gratis, entonces, ¿qué tienes que perder? Descarga y si lo odias, simplemente bórralo. Hazlo ahora Voy a esperar Quiero decir en serio, ¿dónde diablos se supone que debo estar? Tenemos 11,000 palabras más para ir.

De todos modos, una vez más en el análisis del fútbol y los retos en él. Al igual que a mi buen amigo, le gusta decir al querido Joe Bryant de FootballGuys.com, es un juego con una correa de cuero prolongada. Cosas extrañas sucederán.

Como no sabrá lo que sucederá, todo lo que podemos hacer es tratar de predecir qué es probable que suceda.

En las últimas cuatro semanas de 2018, Derrick Henry promedió solo 6,7 metros para la transferencia. En los 43 juegos anteriores de su carrera, había promediado 4.1 yardas para la transferencia. ¿Qué es más probable que suceda?

Travis Kelce ha atrapado al menos 80 pases por 1,000 metros durante tres temporadas consecutivas. ¿Qué es más probable que suceda?

En los últimos 15 años, solo un novato TE (Evan Engram) terminó siendo el mejor jugador en esta posición y este fue un gran año en el que Odell Beckham Jr perdió la mayor parte de la temporada y Brandon Marshall y Sterling Shepard también perdieron una cantidad buen tiempo Tan solo una vez en 15 años. ¿Qué es más probable que le pase a Noah Fant y T.J. Hockens esta temporada?

Usando un poco de investigación y un poco de lógica básica, puede tomar un momento para pensar en cada jugador, la situación y la oportunidad desde cualquier ángulo y hacer una llamada a lo que es más probable que suceda. ¿Por qué podría este chico tener éxito o por qué falló la temporada pasada? ¿Estaba bailando? ¿Es fácilmente repetible? ¿Qué hay en el camino de su éxito y qué puede empujarlo a ese tipo de fantasía dulce y dulce? Una vez que entendemos esto, es muy fácil determinar qué es probable que suceda. Esto no siempre funcionará, por supuesto, pero como cualquier otra cosa en la vida, si juegas los desacuerdos, funcionará más a menudo que no.

Este es un artículo largo, pero para aquellos que buscan «TL; DR» en cada publicación más de un párrafo, realmente hay dos cosas cruciales que debe entender al prepararse para su proyecto o subasta:

El primero es que, una vez más para los niños en la espalda, EN EL NIVEL FUNDAMENTAL, EL MAYOR DEL ÉXITO DE FANTASY DE FUTBOLL ESTÁ MINIMIZANDO EL RIESGO EN EL FIN DE SEMANA para darle los mejores regalos para ganar.

Aquí está el segundo:

Es un juego semanal.

Oh si He escrito sobre lo que Beyonce fue solo una de las tres niñas de Child of Chance y es la cosa más visible en el universo y, sin embargo … escucho que muy pocas personas hablan de eso cada año.

Déjame hacerte explotar con esto:

NO FLUYAMOS A ANUAL JUEGO.

Jugamos un juego de una semana de duración que tiene lugar en el transcurso de una temporada de la NFL.

Abrazando el espíritu de fantasía de los deportes de fantasía, el viejo analista de fantasía de ESPN Matthew Berry y sus actores inusuales, tienen como objetivo hacer que los futbolistas sean fantasías más inteligentes y ayudarles a ganar las ligas de fútbol. ellos. Mira el último episodio.

Después de todo, la fantasía «estacional» del fútbol es una serie de 13 (y posiblemente más) competiciones de una semana. Los analistas, escritores y expertos (y yo soy culpable de eso) hablan sobre cuántos puntos o fantasía o yardas o objetivos o lo que alguien tuvo la temporada pasada y qué predicen este año, pero la verdad es que no existen. Hay muchos jugadores que tienen que estar en tu alineación cada semana.

Por supuesto, sería maravilloso si tu equipo estuviera lleno de un grupo de personas como Saquon Barkley, pero necesitarás chicos como T.J. Yeldon, que la temporada pasada fue la décima en fantasía en las 5-8 semanas.

El día del diseño, está configurando un equipo que necesita hacer una cosa: excluir a otro equipo (predeterminado) durante una semana determinada. Sabiendo que habrá varias semanas, lesiones y muchas otras sorpresas durante la temporada, que es la mejor colección de jugadores a los que puedes unirte en el día del draft para darte una información básica (la palabra clave tiene la base). ¿Tiraste mejor en el éxito cada semana?

Para ponerlo de una manera ligeramente diferente, usted quiere el mejor grupo de jugadores que pueda reunir, que le dará los puntajes de fantasía más fantásticos en una semana determinada, con el principio fundamental de que NO tienes que comenzar el mismo equipo todas las semanas y, gracias a las semanas del abdomen, no puedes hacerlo.

Entonces, ¿cómo hacemos esto? VBD, Zero-RB, Zero-WR, QB al principio, espere en un QB, RB / RB, WR / WR, TE al principio, más tarde, redacción automática, simplemente seleccionando la persona más importante disponible en qué hoja imprime cuando está su lado … honestamente, vi todo el trabajo y vi a todos los que se estrellaron y quemaron.

Así que hay muchas maneras, pero así es como lo hago:

Antes del draft

1. Miro, escucho, leo y exploro como loco. Y siempre recuerdo que todos están mintiendo.

Mire, este artículo tiene una gran cantidad de objetos de jugadores de la próxima ronda, pero la mayor parte de este artículo es sobre teoría y estrategia. Y, por supuesto, todo lo que lea / vea / oiga esta presidencia será sobre los jugadores y sus valores, tanto altos como bajos. Y solo sé que lo que lea no es un hecho, sino un pensamiento disfrazado como un hecho. Creeme O mejor aún, lea 100 de mis datos que necesita saber antes de hacerlo. A menudo imitado, nunca duplicado, es el artículo original y preferido para escribir cada pretemporada. Si nada más, la introducción es útil para entender cómo se crea el análisis.

2. Estudié las reglas.

Es obvio, pero no puedo decir cuántos proyectos estaba donde alguien en el medio dice: «Espera, ¿cuántos WR hemos empezado?» … o algunos de ellos. Cada cambio importa. Estudie así: esta es la película de Zapruder (¡finalmente una referencia que es más antigua que 21!). ¿Cuántos puntos registrados tienes? ¿Tienes un punto IR? Si es así, puedes ser un poco más agresivo para perseguir a los jugadores talentosos pero lesionados. ¿Es el marcado de las primas de TE? ¿Cuántos equipos hacen los playoffs? ¿Cuándo es el término comercial (si existe)? Y así sucesivamente.

3. Entiendo donde estoy diseñando.

¿Estoy compilando en ESPN.com (o la aplicación ESPN), donde compila más gente que cualquier otro sitio en el mundo? ¿O estoy gastando en otro lugar, porque el comisario es un error obstinado? La razón por la que busco, además de otro premio para el primer lugar de fantasía en el mundo, es que la posición promedio de los proyectos está impulsada en gran medida por el rango predeterminado en cualquier página que juegues.

Por lo tanto, el rango de ADP (y su posible modo de proyecto) en ESPN difiere (a veces considerablemente) en algunos aspectos, desde ADP a otros países, la gente juega a la fantasía porque nuestro orden predeterminado es diferente de aquellos de otros paises.

Encuentre una fuente de contenido que le guste (también puede usar la mina si lo desea), compárela con el ADP del sitio que está creando y encontrará jugadores que van demasiado alto o demasiado bajo para su gusto. Aquí es donde encontrará escasez de mercado. (Y será, nuevamente, la fuerza motriz del pilar del amor / odio en la pretemporada de este año).

4. Me burlo del proyecto como loca.

Una vez que sabes en qué sitio estoy compilando y todas las reglas y configuraciones (y con suerte de qué lugar estás diseñando), hago un montón de borradores simulados. Un buen lugar para comenzar es, por supuesto, nuestro encantador proyecto de ley.

Cuanto más escriba, más escenarios intente, más preparado estará y más familiarizado estará con la sala de borrador. Hablando de esquemas bromeados, si te unes a uno, no te vayas. Las personas que abandonaron los esquemas revueltos al principio son, como, la sexta de las peores personas en la tierra. Además, si te unes a un proyecto simulado, no juegues conmigo ni con alguien más. No puedo decirte cuántos tweets recibí que digan: «¡Estoy en un proyecto de burla contigo!» Y no soy yo. Es tan raro, no entiendo por qué la gente hace esto.

De todos modos, tan pronto como sepa que siempre que hago un borrador simulado (o algún tipo de ley), siempre lo pondré en Twitter, así que revísalo primero.

Durante el draft

Ruedas 1-3

Es una frase que he usado con frecuencia, pero sigue siendo cierto: no puedes ganar tu liga en la primera ronda, pero puedes perderla.

En otras palabras, este NO es el lugar para ponerse hermoso. Desea estar seguro, desea ser confiable, lo más cercano posible a la producción garantizada.

Al igual que después de superar cuatro RB principales, un chico que amo en la primera ronda de este año (pero va en la segunda ronda como este artículo) es David Johnson (ADP: 12.0, RB8, Rango im: RB5).

Mira, el éxito de la fantasía viene de dos cosas: talentos y oportunidades. Todos los jugadores en la primera ronda tienen talento y oportunidad, pero el volumen para Johnson es probable que vuelva a ser una locura. Quiero decir, incluso en un año terrible la temporada pasada para un mal cardenal histórico, donde todo lo que podría salir mal, Johnson de alguna manera terminó siendo el noveno mejor en fantasía. Y esto se debe a su volumen (la temporada pasada, trató un 48.3% del toque de su equipo). Si bien el jurado aún está deliberando sobre cuántos juegos de Arizona ganarán esta temporada, el trabajo de Kliff Kingsbury debería ser fantástico, especialmente para los DJ. Durante la estadía de Kingsbury en Texas Tech (2013-18), sus equipos lideraron la nación en juegos de juego ofensivos y fueron los 10 primeros en las expectativas totales de RB.

¿David Johnson fue subestimado en los borradores este año? Cary Edmondson / USA TODAY Sport

Mientras tanto, de alguna manera Le Von Bell, quien perdió 18 partidos en sus primeras cinco temporadas antes de haber estado fuera toda la temporada y está en un nuevo equipo con un entrenador que ha sido responsable de una de los trabajos más lentos con la NFL en los últimos años, actualmente se dirige a los cinco primeros. Si lo está comprando, Le Von funcionará como un Jet o no, sigue siendo el punto de que no puede decirme que no existe un gran riesgo allí. El hecho de que en general sea quinto es gentil para mí, y lo tengo como una segunda ronda (y no estoy loco por eso ni siquiera allí).

Si los últimos años en ESPN son indicativos, las dos primeras opciones se combinarán para aproximadamente el 30% de su producción fantasma semanal. ¡El treinta por ciento! Esto … eso es demasiado, niños.

Y este año, en las primeras rondas, más a menudo de lo que no quiere volver. No es que no haya receptores amplios (o extremos estrechos) dotados, pero es el costo de las oportunidades. Mire estas tablas, que muestran, desde los últimos tres años individualmente y luego combinan, la caída en el total de puntos de fantasía de RB 1-10 a RB 11-20 (RB1 a RB2) versus la caída de WR 1-10 a WR 11 -20 (WR1 a WR2). También se incluye para el contexto el abandono de 11-20 a 21-30 en cada posición (RB2 a RB3 y WR2 a WR3).

Mantén estas tablas por un segundo y vamos a dar un paso más. Estamos en las dos primeras rondas aquí, por lo que hablamos de la élite de la élite. ¿Qué posiciones llevan la delantera en términos de alta producción? Aquí hay una tabla que detalla la caída desde los cinco primeros lugares en cada posición en los puntos de las fantasías totales en los 10 primeros. Hice esto durante la temporada pasada y comparé los resultados con los tres años anteriores:

De acuerdo, es probable que no necesites esta buena mesa para decirte que la élite de la producción de la temporada pasada fue el plátano, pero Kyle Soppe la creó con «sed» para construirla y está orgulloso de ello. aqui tienes Y vamos a hablar de los tres bordes de la élite de cerca hasta cierto punto, no te preocupes.

Lo que más me interesa aquí es la culminación de la élite que lidera la producción y el paisajismo del paisaje WR. Entonces, no seas bello dentro de los cuatro mejores puntos de esta temporada y un fuerte argumento (dijo, con esperanza) puede haber sido hecho para regresar en cualquier lugar en la primera ronda es una buena jugada si crees que el jugador tiene el potencial de terminar dentro de los cinco primeros en la posición.

Por supuesto, no todas las cosas en 2019 serán como lo fueron en 2018, por lo que no sugiero que estas tasas estén cerradas. Solo quiero usarlos para mostrar que construir alrededor de una estrella atrasada (o incluso dos, dependiendo del curso de tu draft) es el porcentaje de juego basado en los datos recopilados de las últimas cuatro temporadas ( y especialmente en el último año). Y como acabamos de aprender, clase … A UN NIVEL BÁSICO, EL ÉXITO DE FANTBOLY MEJOR FANTASY ES LA MINIMIZACIÓN DEL RIESGO EN EL FIN DE SEMANA PARA DAR LA MEJOR DIRECCIÓN A GANAR.

Es el diseño ¿DeAndre Hopkins o Davante Adams en la primera ronda hundirán su temporada? Por supuesto que no Son dos estrellas. Pero cuando ves a tipos como Julio Jones, JuJu Smith-Schuster y Odell Beckham Jr. entrando en el segundo, es difícil argumentar que hay una gran caída de la ronda 1 a la ronda 2 en la posición de receptor amplio. Por otra parte, al regresar, las preguntas parecen ser bastante rápidas (¿cuánto crees en Dalvin Cook o en Leonard Fournette?) Y eso es antes de decidir si confías en las rodillas de Todd Gurley II.

En la mayoría de los giros de ESPN de este año, espero que exista aproximadamente la misma cantidad de RB y WR en dos rondas y es mucho más probable que abra mi borrador de RB-WR o RB-RB que WR -rb. Sin embargo, diré que no quiero abandonar mis primeras tres rondas sin al menos un receptor amplio.

Ejemplo de objetivos de la segunda ronda.

Entre los jugadores que actualmente se dirigen a la segunda ronda, hay dos jugadores que amo:

Joe Mixon (ADP: 19.8, RB10; RANG: RB8): De nuevo, esto se debe al volumen. En su segunda temporada en la NFL, Mixon se convirtió en una verdadera vaca. Había promediado 20 juegos por juego y estaba entre los cinco primeros en términos de porcentaje de acarreos y yardas terrestres de su equipo. Ahora con Zac Taylor arriba, si Andy Dalton y A.J. El verde puede mantenerse saludable, el trabajo de los bengalíes debería ser mucho más explosivo en 2019.

Odell Beckham Jr. (ADP: 15.5, WR5; RAN: WR4): Si quieres un WR, tiene un tiro legítimo para ser el mejor fan de esta temporada. Me encanta mudarme a Cleveland para OBJ, en gran parte debido a la mejora de QB. Después de que Freddie Kitchens se hizo cargo de este trabajo en la novena semana la temporada pasada, Baker Mayfield llevó a la liga a finales de juego profundos y fue segundo en la búsqueda profunda. Esto definitivamente ayudará a Beckham, quien brilla en pasajes profundos. Considera que Beckham ha anotado 25 puntos extra en más del 30% de los juegos de su carrera hasta el momento, y eso fue con Eli Manning como su QB. Solo imagina lo que hará con Mayfield lanzando la pelota.

Mike Evans (a la derecha) tuvo una mejor carrera de 1,524 yardas en 2018. ¿Qué hará por una repetición con Bruce Arians como su nuevo entrenador? Jason Getz / USA TODAY Sport

Ejemplo de Objetivo de la Ronda 3: Mike Evans (ADP: 24.7, WR10; Clasificación: WR10)

Un ejemplo de cuán profundo es WR, puede obtener 10 talentos de borde superior como Evans, Amari Cooper, T.Y. Hilton y Julian Edelman en esta ronda. No son tan buenos como los muchachos de élite, pero están mucho más cerca de la seguridad y la producción garantizada para la verdadera elite WR que «grande, pero puede ser lastimado». Una vez más, los tipos como Cook y Fournette se dirigen a esta ronda. Aquí es donde comienza a ver los defectos en algunas de las partes dirigidas, pero el WR aún se encuentra en el nivel de estudio. Esta es también la ronda de Zach Ertz y George Kittle, y me gustan mucho los dos jugadores, pero probablemente esté esperando cerca este año. Discutiremos el cierre en la sección 7-9 Rondas.

Lo último antes de ir a las rondas 4-6, y esta es la importancia de la calificación de los jugadores, que en última instancia es lo que tiene un draft: mirar la lista de jugadores y evaluar rápidamente qué jugadores son los mejores Por tu equipo que por otros.

Aprecio a los jugadores que usan muchos factores, pero no tienes que enfrentarte, tener una vida.

Pero me gustaría que te concentres solo en dos cosas cuando piensas en los jugadores y la primera es vital en las dos primeras rondas:

Gama de resultados: anual

Mientras se prepara para su borrador o subasta, debe tener una opinión sobre cada jugador. No necesitas tener estadísticas o predicciones memorizadas, sino solo una sensación general de cuánto te gusta ese tipo en comparación con otros jugadores. Incluso si es solo la clasificación de alguien en quien crees, una forma de distinguir entre jugadores, mientras que el tiempo se activa en tu elección.

Cada jugador de la lista debe tener una serie de resultados que los conviertan en una de dos cosas:

1. Un jugador con un piso alto durante una temporada.
2. Un jugador que puede terminar siendo una opción de élite en una posición en una semana determinada.

Y en las dos primeras rondas, quiero que los jugadores califiquen para el No. 1. Para decirlo de otra manera, la temporada pasada, Adams anotó al menos 16 puntos de fantasía en los 15 juegos que jugó y nunca estuvo derecho durante semanas sin encontrar la última zona. También es el único jugador de la NFL con expectativas de TD de dos dígitos en cada una de las últimas tres temporadas. Ahora, los Packers tienen un nuevo sistema ofensivo y un nuevo entrenador, y hay una gran cantidad de jóvenes adolescentes que pueden comer en su objetivo de acción pero vienen. Todo esto es poco probable que le afecte mucho. E incluso si, en cierto modo, ha habido un ligero descenso en la producción, no me importará. Todavía tendría a Adams como mi receptor no. 1 porque su espectro de resultados es pequeño.

Excluyendo algunas lesiones catastróficas, Adams terminará siendo uno de los mejores WR en fantasía. Tiene un rango estrecho de resultados y se encuentra en un nivel de élite. Mientras tanto, alguien como Sammy Watkins (actualmente en WR24) tiene una gama de resultados mucho más amplia. Puede ser impresionante, puede ser insostenible.

Verás, muy a menudo la gente evalúa a un jugador solo en términos de lo que puede hacer de una manera positiva, el mejor escenario para ese jugador. Las personas también tienden a tener sesgos recientes, lo que significa que solo piensan en cómo jugaba el jugador en el pasado cercano, sin mirar gran parte del trabajo.

La temporada pasada (incluida la postemporada), Watkins jugó en siete partidos con no más de cinco goles. En esos juegos, instaló un impresionante elemento básico para 590 yardas y tres touchdowns. En los 11 juegos restantes, las cabezas jugaron, Watkins no jugó en seis de ellos y solo alcanzó 11 tomas para 105 yardas en cinco. Obviamente, hay un rango mucho más amplio de resultados de Watkins que, dice Kenny Golladay, quien actualmente está tres frentes por delante de Watkins en WR y logró al menos 50 estrellas, admitiendo en 11 de sus 15 partidos la temporada pasada .

En la medida de lo posible, especialmente en las primeras rondas, quiero jugadores con un piso alto. Y no solo un piso superior para la temporada, sino un piso superior semanalmente. Esta consistencia, semanas y semanas, es lo que gana el campeonato, como Saquon Barkley o Davante Adams ayudaron a muchos gerentes de fantasía el año pasado.

Hablando de los pisos altos, hablemos rápidamente sobre Big Three al final de: Travis Kelce, Zach Ertz y George Kittle.

Son jugadores muy talentosos y también son mis tres bordes cercanos.

Y aquí está el argumento para traerlos aquí:

La temporada pasada, los TE de Big Tre promediaron 277.9 puntos (17.4 PPG). Los tres resultados de cierre total promediaron 192.9 puntos (12.1 PPG). En otras palabras, un Three Big TE te dio un 44% más de puntos por semana que TE4-6.

¡Cuarenta y cuatro por ciento!

¿Entiendes lo masivo que es una ventaja? Todos estuvimos babeando por Patrick Mahomes la temporada pasada (incluyéndome a mí; era tan completo el año pasado, me preocupaba que él emitiera una orden restrictiva) pero tan mágico como la temporada pasada era, estaba «solo» un 39,3% más disponible semanalmente que Russell Wilson (QB9).

Sí.

Big Three ofreció una mayor ventaja sobre los siguientes tres mejores TE que los Mahomes crearon para una iniciativa marginal en QB.

Entonces, este es el argumento si desea obtener uno de estos objetivos cercanos aquí: que cree que producirá un rendimiento mucho mayor que cualquier otro extremo cercano.

Pero aquí está mi preocupación:

Lo que hicieron la temporada pasada no fue simplemente increíble, fue HISTORIA.

Gjatë pesë sezoneve të fundit të NFL, këtu janë katër stinët më të mira të fantazisë TE:
Travis Kelce (2018): 294.6 pikë
Zach Ertz (2018): 280.3 pikë
Rob Gronkowski (2014): 266.4 pikë
George Kittle (2018): 258.7 pikë

Si cfare? Ne kishim dy djem të vitit të kaluar, të cilët ishin më mirë se hera e fundit që pashë elitën Gronk? Dhe po hartoni sikur kjo të vazhdojë?

Le të shohim këtë nga një këndvështrim tjetër:

Në 2018, Big Three TEs mesatarisht 67% më shumë PPG se TE4-10 (në teori, të tjera «starters» në një ligë 10-ekip ESPN).

Në pesë vitet e mëparshme, rënia mesatare e prodhimit PPG nga tre kompanitë më të mira në shtatë vitet e ardhshme ishte vetëm 30.1%.

Ju keni dëgjuar mua: Rritja e prodhimit që tre TEs më të lartë ju dha në vitin 2018 mbi startuesit e tjerë të TE ishte më shumë se dyfishi i avantazhit tre të lartë në pozicionin që ju dha në pesë sezonet e mëparshme.

Mbani mend, fëmijët, ne po luajmë ndeshjen e «asaj që ka më shumë gjasa të ndodhë».

Kështu që unë ju pyes, lexues i butë. Çfarë ka gjasa të ndodhë këtë vit?

Para se të përgjigjeni, më lejoni të provoj një mënyrë tjetër. Le të nxjerrim emrat dhe të shkojmë vetëm nga tre lojtarët kryesorë, pavarësisht nga emri, në pozicionin e ngushtë në fantazi.

• Në vitin 2018, tre lojtarët më të mirë në fantazi (Big Tre) shënoi 833.6 pikë.
• Në vitin 2017, tre TE-të e lartë në fantazi shënoi 663.3 pikë.
• Në vitin 2016, tre TE-të e lartë në fantazi shënoi 639.3 pikë.

Pra … Unë ju pyes përsëri: Çfarë ka më shumë gjasa të ndodhë me Big Tre TEs këtë vit?

Mos më merrni gabim. Ata janë të shkëlqyeshëm, ata janë topat e mia të lartë të tre, dhe nëse luani në një ligë me vlerësim TE premium (zakonisht 1.5 PPR për TEs), unë me siguri e kam marrë atë dhe e mbështes atë.

Por në një standard të standardit ESPN PPR, unë nuk kam gjasa të kap një nga këto përfundime të ngushta në ADP e tyre aktuale.

Pavarësisht se është pjesë e një Big Tre të qartë në fund të ngushtë, historia thotë se George Kittle nuk ka gjasa të përsërisë pushimin e tij 2018 sezonit. Kelley L Cox / USA TODAY Sport

Gjithashtu, Mahomes shkon në këtë varg. Unë do të shkoj në QBs në përgjithësi në një seksion të mëvonshëm, por veçanërisht në lidhje me Mahomes, tim 100 Fakte ka një grumbull statistikash që tregojnë se edhe nëse ai regreson, Mahomes është ende e vlefshme për të hartuar si nr. 1 QB. Pra, po, nëse e doni, unë e fitoj. Ai është magji dhe kënaqësi si ferr për të parë dhe rrënjosur për të. Dhe ndoshta, ashtu si sezoni i kaluar, ai i thyen të gjitha perceptimet dhe ka një tjetër vit të mahnitshëm. E kam atë në disa ligje të dinastisë dhe absolutisht e dua atë.

POR …

Unë jam një djalë i pritjes-në-QB në ligat standarde të ESPN-së.

Kjo ndoshta nuk do të ketë rëndësi, sepse ju ose po pini Kool-Aid në Mahomes ose nuk jeni, dhe asnjë logjikë apo arsye nuk do të ndikojë nga cilido pozicion që keni. Por nëse vendosni të mos hartoni Mahomes, merrni parasysh këtë:

Lojtari A: ADP prej 41.6 me një mesatare PPG 19.3
Lojtari B: ADP prej 80.4 me një mesatare PPG 19.6

Askush në mendjen e duhur nuk po merr lojtarin A, a mund të pajtohemi për këtë? E pra, këto janë mesataret për QBs 1-5 në aspektin e ADP sezonin e kaluar (Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady, Cam Newton, Deshaun Watson dhe Russell Wilson), ndërsa lojtari B përfaqëson QBs 6-10 (Carson Wentz, Drew Brees, Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger dhe Kirk Cousins).

Sigurisht, ky sezon mund të jetë i ndryshëm, por fakti që thellësia e pozicionit e bën një stat të tillë edhe më larg mund të thotë që ju jeni më mirë duke pritur, me kusht që ju të mos mendoni se Mahomes do të hedh për një tjetër 50-disa -dod rezultatet përsëri.

Me pak fjalë (shumë vonë!), Ndërsa çdo projekt është i ndryshëm dhe ju duhet ta lini projektin të vijë tek ju, në shumicën e rasteve dua të largohem nga ky seksion me të paktën një RB, një WR dhe një lojtar të tretë që është ose RB ose WR. Dhe më shumë gjasa se jo, është një RB.

Shkon 4-6

Pra, në këtë pikë në draft, regjistri juaj ka shumë të ngjarë të duket si një nga këto dy versione (në asnjë mënyrë të veçantë):

RB-RB-WR
RB-WR-WR

Tani, ndoshta ju keni një nga skajet më të ngushta ose ndoshta ju keni kapur Mahomes, aq të sigurt, disa prej jush do të ulen me një regjistër si një nga këto:

RB-WR-TE
RB-RB-TE
WR-WR-TE
QB-RB-WR
QB-RB-RB
QB-WR-WR

Çfarëdo ndërtimi, pika është thjesht kjo: Këto tre raundet e ardhshme janë rreth grabbing më shumë mbrapa running dhe marrës të gjerë.

Nëse ju keni një fund të ngushtë Big Tre apo jo, fundi i ardhshëm i ngushtë nuk do të shkojë deri në raundin e gjashtë apo të shtatë raundin (Evan Engram, OJ Howard dhe Hunter Henry janë tre të tjerët që aktualisht janë duke shkuar jashtë bordit), kështu që ose mënyrë që ju nuk jeni me të vërtetë duke kërkuar në një fund të ngushtë në këtë seksion.

Dhe nëse keni apo nuk keni Mahomes, QB-të e vetme që shkojnë në këtë varg janë Watson, Rodgers dhe Luck. Përsëri, unë jam një djalë i pritur në QB dhe ne do të hyjmë në atë në seksionin e ardhshëm, por edhe nëse vendosni të zhyteni në një prej atyre djemve, është ende vetëm një lojtar dhe tjetri zgjedh në këtë section are going to be RBs and WRs.

In general, over the past three years on ESPN, the average difference between players picked in Rounds 4, 5 and 6 is less than 1.5 points per game. So with the production likely to be similar, if you like a player in this range, go get him.

Look alive, Chester, this is important.

A point and a half. Do you understand what I'm talking about?

So much of draft talk is about «value» and what's a «reach,» and while that is true in some areas (most prominently in the first few rounds), we've studied this, and there are always going to be Patrick Mahomes- or James Conner-type anomalies that skew things. But in general, in the past three years, the difference between players picked in Rounds 4, 5 and 6, on a points-per-game basis … is a POINT AND A HALF.

Get who you want, when you want in this section and focus on running backs and wide receivers.

The rest of the stuff I do this entire preseason, in columns, on The Fantasy Show on ESPN+, on the Fantasy Football Marathon (Aug. 12 and 13) and on the Fantasy Focus Football podcast will be about player analysis, which players you should look at, which you should avoid and in which rounds to do both of those things.

But here are a few hints as to what to look for:

1. Players on good teams

How many times have you heard «I want quarterback X because his team stinks and will be playing from behind.» Or «running back Y is going to benefit from his team consistently being ahead.»

We hear them all the time. Are they true?

Below is a breakdown of the percentage of players who finished in the top 10 at their position in fantasy points since 2014 while playing for an NFL team that finished with a winning record that season.

QB — 74%
RB — 64%
WR — 68%
TE — 56%
K — 76%
D/ST — 84%

In other words, 74% of the top 10 fantasy QBs since 2014 have come from teams that were better than .500 in the NFL. Are there some junk-time heroes like the Tampa Bay quarterbacks last season? Of course. But overall, if the NFL team is winning, its players are fantasy assets.

By the way, all establish-the-run jokes aside, I found the recent spike in correlation between winning teams and running back points interesting. I'll let someone else argue if teams are winning because they run the ball or they are running the ball because they're winning. But for our purposes, it's interesting to note that in 2015, the top five NFL teams in terms of RB fantasy points combined for just 37 wins. In 2016, that number rose to 44, and it was up to 54 in 2017. Last season, the top teams in RB fantasy scoring won 61 games!

All in all, the top five teams in terms of fantasy points for RBs over the past five seasons are averaging a tick under 10 wins per season.

Our friends at Caesars Palace have seven teams currently projected for 10 or more wins (Patriots, Chiefs, Colts, Eagles, Rams, Saints and Chargers).

2. When looking at running backs, go for the guys who also catch passes

So I'll spare you the math behind it, but we looked at what RB2s on fantasy playoff teams did last year, and it was 14.4 points per game in PPR scoring. So for our purposes here, let's just say you want a RB2 who ideally scores at least 14.4 points per game, and we'll give a range up to 18 points for some higher-scoring weeks. In 2018, 60.7% of such performances saw the running back score at least five points as a pass-catcher.

Those are just some numbers to tell you what you know instinctively: that versatile backs have more ways to score points, especially in a PPR format.

3. When looking at wide receivers, chase volume, not scoring

Touchdowns are great. They are also, generally speaking, unpredictable. But it stands to reason that the more looks you get, the better your chances are at scoring fantasy points one way or another. So looking at average weekly production from WR2s on playoff ESPN teams, it's about 16.6 points per game from that position. So if we once again expand up to 18 points to account for higher-scoring weeks, we find that 62% of all such performances saw the wideout get at least seven targets.

4. When in doubt at running back, go young

In 2015, seven of the top 15 RBs (total PPR points) were 26 or younger. In 2016, that number jumped to 11. It rose again to 13 in 2017, and then last season, every single top-15 RB was in his age-26 season or younger. If you buy into the age trends, this would put James White and David Johnson in a tough spot this season, as they are the only two backs from this group graduating from this age range. Obviously I'm ignoring the age thing on Johnson. Remember, he basically lost a full season with the wrist injury (so no mileage on the legs).

Example Round 4 target: Damien Williams (ADP: 45.0, RB18; My Rank: RB9): This ADP is insane to me. I get the small sample size concern and I still expect Williams' ADP to rise substantially as we get closer to draft season, but come on. I would be doing backflips to get him in the fifth. He's a legit third-rounder. Last season, in the six games in which Williams got 10-plus touches (including the playoffs), he averaged 24.4 fantasy PPG. It doesn't matter that Williams might not be an elite talent, because his role and opportunity are as good as it gets. Last season, Kansas City RBs were top-five in both red zone targets and red zone rushing TDs. And since Andy Reid took over as head coach in 2013, the Chiefs lead the league in RB receiving TDs and are top-five in both rushing TDs and YPC. And because of his limited usage in Miami, I am choosing to ignore the 26-year-old RB rule for him as well (he's 27).

Other targets in this area: Devonta Freeman, Josh Jacobs, Brandin Cooks and Marlon Mack.

I am more than willing to ignore my running back «age rule» to snag Damien Williams in drafts. Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire

Example Round 5 targets

Aaron Jones (ADP: 45.2, RB19; My Rank: RB15): Free Aaron Jones! Look, not including Mike McCarthy, we all know how good Jones is when given the opportunity. Last season, he gained 5-plus yards on more than 42% of his carries, the second-highest rate among qualified RBs. And in the eight games in which he saw 10-plus carries, he averaged 19.1 fantasy PPG. We've heard the Packers' RB coach already praise Jones' fitness and conditioning during OTAs, and Matt LaFleur has stated he wants his RBs more involved in the passing game this season. I fully expect Jones to set a new career high in touches, and if that happens, you're getting a top-15 RB at a fourth-round price.

My little Cooper Kupp (ADP: 53.3, WR19; My Rank: WR20): There's obviously a little bit of risk here with Kupp coming off a torn ACL, but I actually think that's baked into the ADP already. If you remove the game in which Kupp was injured, he would have been WR11 on a PPG basis last season. Kupp was also fifth among all qualified WRs in yards per target (10.9). He's an ideal option to pair with a high-upside WR1 at this point in the draft.

Other Round 5 targets: Robert Woods and Kerryon Johnson.

Example Round 6 target: Chris Godwin (ADP: 66.5, WR23; My Rank: WR21):

As required by fantasy analyst law, I am high on Godwin this year. (I'm actually very high — once again — on the Tampa Bay offense.) Godwin has flashed plenty of talent in his first two seasons in the league, and now he will finally have a consistent every-week role. Consider that Godwin still finished as a top-30 WR in 2018 despite being outside the top 50 in routes run at the position. Now the departures of DeSean Jackson and Adam Humphries have freed up 177 targets, and new coach Bruce Arians has already come out and said he wants to use Godwin in the Larry Fitzgerald role in his offense. I'm buying, and Godwin's ADP is going to be much higher in next year's drafts.

Rounds 7-9

At this point in the draft, you should have the core of your starting lineup. Through the first six rounds, you've likely got at least two starting running backs, two starting wide receivers and one flex. And for me, I'll likely not only have a flex but a strong bench player as well.

That means this section is about adding depth and finally looking at the tight end and quarterback positions (assuming you've ignored one or both to this point). This is where at least half your league will start focusing on QBs, and everyone who didn't draft Kelce, Ertz and Kittle will start looking to fill the tight end spot.

So let's discuss quarterback here for a second. We discussed it some in the Rounds 1-3 section, where Mahomes was going. But let's take Mahomes out of it, as his season was literally historic, and speaking of history, that means it's unlikely to repeat. (Remember … what's MOST likely to happen?)

Last year, the difference between QB3 (Ben Roethlisberger) and QB11 (Mitchell Trubisky, a non-starter in ESPN leagues) on a per-game basis in Weeks 1-17 (ESPN standard season) … was less than 2.6 points a week.

I'm not saying a little over two and a half points a week isn't something. But it isn't when you're passing on an elite option at another position to grab a QB early. Because even if you screw up which QB you take in the draft, the talent pool will be so big, with quality QBs in your free-agent pool (in an ESPN standard league of 10 teams, starting one QB), you'll be able to grab someone to start and still get quality production.

Even last season, with Mahomes setting all sorts of records, there were 11 times when a QB scored 36 points or more in a game, and 10 different QBs appeared on that list (the only duplicate was Trubisky).

Last season, quarterbacks on playoff teams in ESPN leagues averaged about 21 points per game. Fifteen QBs reached the 21-point threshold at least five times in 2018, including Marcus Mariota. And with increased playing time this year for Baker Mayfield and Jameis Winston (plus the addition of Kyler Murray to the player pool), this number should only get better.

Again, remember, we play a WEEKLY GAME. There are 32 starting QBs in a given non-bye week. Only 10 of them can start in an ESPN standard-sized league. There will always be viable starting options on your waiver wire. That's not the case at RB or WR. Or, frankly, TE.

I don't like paying a premium for the elite TEs as we discussed above, but you're gonna need one, and this is where the usable ones start going. I'd prefer to grab one in this range rather than truly wait it out. Sure, there's always a chance there's another Jared Cook or Eric Ebron type waiting out there this year. (Or even George Kittle. Remember, Kittle was drafted as TE18 last year. I mean, someone had him as TE11 and on the «Love» list last year, ahem.) But while I have high hopes for Oakland's Darren Waller, and certainly Baltimore's Mark Andrews has his share of fans, I'd like to get at least one tight end who will be an important part of his team's offense.

Finally, the seventh round is where the Bears D/ST is being drafted. Come on, people. What are we even doing here?

Look, I know. The Bears were great LAST season. Awesome. Amazeballs. All that and a bag of beef jerky. Seriously, they were the $#%^.

And this year, that means … nothing.

From 2013 to 2017, the difference between D/ST1 and D/ST2 was basically a point a game (1.1, to be exact). The 2018 Bears were an outlier. Based on past track record, even if we KNEW they'd repeat as D/ST1, is the extra point over D/ST2 or the few points over a late-round D/ST worth their current seventh-round ADP?

I say no way. I mean, among the players going after the Bears D/ST at the time of this writing are Chris Godwin, DJ Moore, Hunter Henry, David Montgomery, Kenyan Drake, Tyler Boyd and Baker Mayfield.

And that's IF we knew the Bears would repeat as the top fantasy defense.

And we don't. We have no idea if they will repeat. The only thing we do know is that we have not had a No. 1 D/ST repeat as the top unit the following year THIS MILLENNIUM.

Remember last year, when the Jaguars were the rock-solid, can't-miss D/ST you had to have and were being picked in the seventh round?

Well, they finished as D/ST10.

If you want to reach a round or two for a defense you love, I wouldn't do it, but fine. Knock yourself out. But in a 10-team standard league, it just makes no sense to reach for one anywhere in this section.

Example Round 7 target: O.J. Howard (ADP: 65.4, TE5; My Rank: TE6):

Like Godwin, Howard is a player who should benefit greatly from a more consolidated target tree in Tampa Bay this season. In fact, Howard was already starting to show flashes of a breakout last season prior to getting hurt. He finished as a top-10 TE in seven of 10 weeks, the third-highest rate at the position, behind only Kelce and Ertz. Howard also finished 2018 top-10 among TEs in both air yards per target and reception percentage, making him a great fit for Bruce Arians' downfield passing attack.

Example Round 8 target: Mike Williams (ADP: 82.9, WR30; My Rank: WR29):

As discussed, this is the area where you start looking at players with upside who have the opportunity to step into larger roles. Williams is at the top of that list. Last season, he became just the second WR in the past decade to score double-digit TDs on fewer than 45 receptions. Now, I obviously don't expect Williams to score on 23% of his catches like he did last season, but you have to believe he's going to see a lot more than 66 targets in 2019. He already has a defined red zone role, and with the added volume he should see following the departure of Tyrell Williams, it's easy to see the former high-first-round pick making the jump into the WR2 range.

Other Round 8 targets: Derrius Guice, Tevin Coleman and Robby Anderson.

Example Round 9 target: Carson Wentz (ADP: 95.9, QB9; My Rank: QB8):

Being able to grab Wentz in the ninth round is exactly why you wait on QB. It's easy to forget because of the injuries, but since the start of 2017, Wentz is the fifth-best QB in fantasy on a points-per-game basis. I'm not crazy about DeSean Jackson from a fantasy perspective (except in best-ball leagues), but I do love him for Wentz's value. Over the past two seasons, Wentz ranks top-five in deep TD passes per game and top-10 in deep TD percentage. I hear you on the injury concerns, but if the Eagles are willing to commit $128 million to him, I'm pretty sure you can swing a ninth-round pick for him.

Other Round 9 targets: Dede Westbrook and Will Fuller V.

Rounds 10-14

At this point in the draft you should have your «offensive» starting lineup (save for maybe a QB if you're really waiting, which I am fine with, or a TE if you decided to punt the position). For the most part, this is sleeper territory. Dart throws. Fliers. #YOLO.

With that in mind, the thing I want you to consider for this section is what I brought up in the Rounds 1-3 section:

Every player I roster has to have a range of outcomes that makes them one of two things:

1. A player with a high floor during the course of a season.
2. A player who could wind up as an elite option at a position in any given week.

In that Rounds 1-3 section, we discussed the first point and the range of outcomes over the course of the season. For this part of the draft, I want to talk about the other thing to focus on when thinking about players:

Range of outcomes in any given week.

The idea here is that certain players, given their talent and the right opportunity, have a range that could easily extend very high in a given week.

In other words, if you are not drafting a starter with a reasonably narrow range of a vjetor outcome, then the bench (which is basically what you are drafting in this area, aside from maybe a QB and/or TE) should be players with the potential for a very high weekly ceiling.

Again, very important to keep stressing this: It is a weekly game. This means that every single week you will look at all the players available to you — on your roster and in the free-agent pool — and decide on a starting lineup.

As obvious as it seems, that's actually a huge step that gets overlooked a lot in fantasy. Because it's not just enough to have a good player — you need to know when to start that player.

I mean, as great as Derrick Henry's 238-yard, four-touchdown performance was in Week 14 last season, very few people got to enjoy that. A fairly pedestrian fantasy year for Henry had preceded that game, and the Jaguars were still considered a good defense.

I actually have a friend who is in a deep league and had Henry on his bench initially, but then Keke Coutee was questionable for the week and not looking great. So he was, reluctantly, forced to start Henry in Week 14 at his flex in a 16-team league. Without Henry's big game, he would have lost the game. Instead, he ended up winning the league. Amazing.

But most people didn't get to enjoy Henry's monster game, as he was started in less than 20% of ESPN leagues that week. So the key is not just having huge single-game potential but knowing WHEN to start a player to get that big game when it happens.

For example, you'll see below that my Round 10 and 11 targets are Latavius Murray and Rashaad Penny. Both are talented running backs who should get some work every week in productive offenses that run the ball well. But to me, what makes them so appealing is that if anything happened to Alvin Kamara or Chris Carson, respectively, each would immediately be a top-15 RB that week, if not higher, and be a must-start back.

You would KNOW to start them.

If you are looking for later-round value in the backfield, Rashaad Penny is a fantastic option. Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports

It's like we said at the top … it's a weekly game, and while it would be great if you could just start the same group every week and not worry about it, there are very few players who are worth starting every week without pause.

So you're gonna need guys like, yes, Murray, who last year with Minnesota was the 10th-best running back in fantasy in Weeks 6-10, slightly outscoring Ezekiel Elliott on a points-per-game basis.

Look at our live draft results. As of this writing, Dante Pettis and Golden Tate are going as WR37 and 38, respectively, both being drafted in the 11th round.

Pettis came on at the end of last season as a rookie with a backup QB and in Week 13-16 was the 13th-best WR in fantasy, scoring 62 points in PPR scoring. For comparison, in that same time frame, Keenan Allen scored 66.4, Julio Jones scored 67.4 and Michael Thomas had 69.6. All less than two points per game better than Pettis. It's a small sample size, it was NOT with Jimmy Garrappolo, and the Niners have (in theory) added a lot more weapons this year, including Tevin Coleman out of the backfield and talented rookie wideout Deebo Samuel. So there's a lot that could go wrong here — Pettis might not come anywhere close to that production.

But he COULD.

Pettis is a talented young guy who produced in a difficult situation. And now he will have another year in Kyle Shanahan's complicated but fantasy-friendly offense and, in theory, improved QB play. (Side note: We will see, but based on what we've seen so far, I'm not convinced Jimmy G is that much better than Nick Mullens. That's more of a compliment to Mullens than a shot at Jimmy G, by the way. I digress.)

Pettis has shown top-15 talent. Gimme a guy like that all day over someone like Tate, who is now on his third team in a calendar year, will be playing with a QB in Eli Manning (and possibly rookie Daniel Jones at some point) that is significantly worse than Russell Wilson, Matthew Stafford or Carson Wentz/Nick Foles. He has never been a huge touchdown guy, as his fantasy value has relied on volume, and it's hard to see him getting significant volume on a team with Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram and Sterling Shepard. I'm sure he'll be fine, but man, gimme the upside of a guy like Pettis, Geronimo Allison, Michael Gallup or Courtland Sutton — all of whom are going off the board after Tate — all day, every day. If you ever need a solid guy like Tate who can just give you 8-10 points in a week, guys like that are always available on the waiver wire.

In the world of «what's most likely to happen,» when I am drafting in this area, I want guys with high weekly ranges. Guys who could, in the right set of circumstances, be top-15 guys. This can also include the backups to your first-round picks, who, should something happen to your star, would fill in nicely. I am pro-handcuff, especially if it's a situation in which you know who the replacement would be. So yeah, if I draft Todd Gurley, I am making sure I have both Darrell Henderson and Malcolm Brown.

What I don't want is no-upside guys like Tate, who will end the season with a few good games, but you'll never know when they are coming. His range of weekly outcomes is not high.

I am of the belief there is no such thing as a bad pick after Round 10 in a 10-team redraft league. What are we playing for here, fourth place? Swing for the fences. YOLO, baby.

And if you strike out on draft day with those fliers, so be it. Draft day is just one piece of the puzzle. Consider this:

I had the crack team here at ESPN HQ study the millions of people who play with us on ESPN.com — more than any place else! For free! With an amazing app that is also free! And controls all of your leagues and teams in any ESPN fantasy sport! And has rankings, articles, videos and more! And you can mock draft from it at any time! Except when you're driving. That would be bad. Don't mock and drive, kids. But yeah, want to start a new league? Activate an old one? Honestly, our ESPN Fantasy App is badass and can do everything, including, I am pretty sure, cure the common cold. It's also 100 percent free! — look at all the most common players on teams that won it all in 2018.

NOTE: ND in the chart below denotes not drafted.

Most common players on 2018 ESPN Fantasy champions

Look at this list. Undrafted guys like Phillip Lindsay, Jaylen Samuels and Eric Ebron, as well as Nick Chubb — who was drafted but then dropped in most leagues — were crucial parts of ESPN championship teams last year. So were later-round picks like George Kittle, Julian Edelman, Robert Woods and, of course, Patrick Mahomes. All the more reason to pay close attention to this section.

So just remember: In this portion of the draft, you want players with a potential high weekly range of outcomes.

Example Round 10 target: Latavius Murray (ADP: 108.5, RB36; My Rank: RB34)

As discussed, a player like Murray is a great target in this area because he's productive enough to use as a flex if needed, yet he also has the upside to be an every-week starter if Alvin Kamara were to get injured. Remember, the Saints have led the NFL in rushing TDs in each of the past two seasons, and in 2018 they were top-five in both overall and red zone rush percentage. By the way, very quietly, Murray has been one of the best goal-line RBs in football the past few years. Last season, Mark Ingram averaged 13.3 touches per game and was 12th among qualified RBs in red zone carries per game. If Murray sees a comparable workload, he's going to be a great value outside the top 100 picks.

Other Round 10 targets: Vance McDonald, Jordan Howard, Darrell Henderson, Christian Kirk and, of course, Pettis.

Example Round 11 target: Rashaad Penny (ADP: 112.2, RB38; My Rank: RB35)

Similar to Murray, Penny could be flex-worthy even if he's the backup, but he would instantly become a top-15 RB if Chris Carson were to miss any time. Seattle ran the ball on a league-high 49.5% of its plays last season and the departure of Mike Davis frees up 146 backfield touches (9.7 per game). And just for fun, if you combined the fantasy production of Davis and Penny last season, that player would have finished as RB14.

Other Round 11 targets: Kyler Murray and Austin Ekeler.

Example Round 12 target: Geronimo Allison (ADP: 140.5, WR48; My Rank: WR31)

In three of Aaron Rodgers' past five healthy seasons, his WR2 has finished as a top-20 WR, so we know the role has a lot of value. The hard part is trying to predict which player is going to have that role when the season begins. But honestly, at this point in the draft the reward of guessing correctly far outweighs the risk of being wrong. Last season, Allison was a top-30 WR for the first four weeks of the season prior to being injured. He had at least 64 yards in all four of those games and at least five catches in three of them. The reports on him coming out of OTAs were positive, and I'm more than willing to take a 12th-round flier on the player I think has a real shot to be Green Bay's second-most-productive WR this season.

Other Round 12 target: Courtland Sutton.

Example Round 13 targets

Donte Moncrief (ADP: 141.6, WR49; My Rank: WR42): Just like in Green Bay, we can expect the No. 2 WR role in Pittsburgh to hold plenty of fantasy value. Moncrief is still just 26, and we saw flashes of his upside when he scored seven TDs in just nine games with the Colts back in 2016. For his career, Moncrief has scored on nearly 60% of his red zone receptions and I expect him to have a featured role in that area of the field for the Steelers this season. Remember, over the past two seasons, Antonio Brown and Jesse James were responsible for more than one-third of Pittsburgh's red zone receiving TDs, so the opportunity is certainly there, as more than 200 targets are now available for the Steelers. That's also one of the reasons I am super high on Vance McDonald this year.

Jameis Winston (ADP: 160.4, QB19; My Rank: QB14): I would not be the least bit surprised if Winston finished the season as a top-10 QB. So being able to grab him this late as my starter, or even as your backup if you have a shaky starter, is Example 8,000,000,003 why you wait on a QB in 10-team leagues. Since the start of 2017, Winston has thrown for at least 300 yards in half of his starts. And had he qualified last season, he would have led the league in both deep completions and deep attempts per game. Oh, and now he gets to play under Bruce Arians. Winston makes for a great backup QB because he has the upside to be an every-week starter, but by drafting him this late, you have the flexibility to bench him if he struggles or has a poor matchup.

Other Round 13 targets: Keke Coutee, Emmanuel Sanders

Example Round 14 target: Darren Waller (ADP: 169.9, TE33; My Rank: TE16)

You should never expect one of your final picks to be a reliable starter, so a player's floor doesn't really matter at this point in the draft. Instead, you want to focus on players who have the talent and opportunity to step into bigger roles. Last season, the Raiders were seventh or better in terms of both overall and red zone targets to the TE position, and with Jared Cook now in New Orleans, Waller is currently projected to take on that role. Waller doesn't have much of an NFL résumé, but he's a converted college WR who is 6-foot-6, 255 pounds and ran a sub-4.5 40 at the combine. He's also been heavily praised this offseason by Jon Gruden, offensive coordinator Greg Olson and even his new teammate Antonio Brown. Could mean something, could mean nothing, but why not take the chance and find out? It's the middle of July as I write this and I've already done a handful of real leagues, including a dynasty start-up, the Scott Fish Bowl and some best-ball leagues. I have Waller in every single one of them.

Other Round 14 targets: Michael Gallup and Royce Freeman.

Rounds 15-16

This is where you're taking your defense and your kicker. If you want to reach for a defense that you like in Round 13 or 14, I'm not doing that, but I don't really hate it. It's your team, go for it. But in general, as we discussed in the Bears D/ST section, the math doesn't really work out for either a defense or a kicker any earlier than here.

Just remember, the No. 1 kicker last year (Ka'imi Fairbairn) was drafted in just 1.6% of leagues. And last year, the defense everyone reached for in the seventh round, the Jags, was 15th in fantasy points after the first month of the season.

The difference between kickers, points-wise, is too negligible to reach for one earlier. There will be some who emerge as reliable options, but the idea that you, or anyone, will be able to predict a breakout kicker with any degree of certainty on draft day, and pass up a shot at this year's Patrick Mahomes or George Kittle (both of whom went in the 12th round or later last year) in the process, is silly.

Patrick Mahomes wound up head and shoulders above the competition in 2018. It's easy to forget that five D/STs and two kickers had better ADPs, though. Jamie Squire/Getty Images

If you want a hint, here's one: Since 2014, four of the top five teams in kicker points also rank top-10 in D/ST points. Every edge is worth gaining, so if you like your kicker, why not double down in the final round with his defense?

Those top five teams in kicker points? Yeah, they also all rank inside the top 10 in running back points over the past five seasons. Laugh at my Alvin Kamara/Wil Lutz/Saints D/ST stack all you want … but there is some math to back it up and almost no risk in structuring your roster in this fashion.

Example Round 15 target: Indianapolis Colts D/ST (ADP: 148.2)

From Week 10 on last season, only five defenses scored more fantasy points than the Colts. During that stretch, Indianapolis allowed less than 17 points per game. The Colts also spent seven of their first eight draft picks on defensive players this year.

Example Round 16 target: Jason Myers (ADP: 169.2)

Myers had the fourth-most fantasy points of any kicker last season and tied for the league lead with six field goals of 50-plus yards.

NOTE: Obviously, the ADPs and my rankings listed above will change a lot after this column publishes in late July, so always make note of those in your draft prep.

Five final thoughts

1. I never sweat bye weeks, the schedule or players on the same team. Construct the best team you can, because you're never sure how things will play out. Last year at this time, no one wanted to face the Jaguars in the fantasy playoffs. Derrick Henry laughed at that. And having Matt Ryan and Julio Jones or Deshaun Watson and DeAndre Hopkins last year certainly worked out for folks, as did having Amari Cooper and Ezekiel Elliott or Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas. Or Patrick Mahomes and the starting RB of the Chiefs.

2. You know what's better than a draft? An auction. As much as I love a draft, it's nothing compared to an auction. In an auction, everyone gets a shot at Saquon Barkley. It's a much fairer way to distribute players, it's more fun and it's an even better test of skill. Seriously. It's chess compared to checkers. Try it once.

3. As long as we're talking about trying new things, try some different league types. Don't get me wrong, the ESPN standard settings are a lot of fun, but if you're like me (and if you've read this far, you are) … you crave all sorts of fantasy football action.

• One format I really enjoy is «Super Flex.» First of all, there are no kickers or D/STs. Instead, you play four flex spots, in addition to a QB, two RBs, two WRs and a TE. One of the flex spots can be a second QB (you can do this in ESPN leagues by designating an «OP» slot). Really fun format and highly recommended. I'm in a deep dynasty league with this format with a bunch of other fantasy analysts (shoutout to the DFB Invitational) and really enjoying it.

• I've written before about Vampire leagues, where everyone in the league drafts except one person. That person is the «Vampire,» who must make his/her team entirely out of waiver-wire players once the draft is complete. However, the other teams can't make pickups at all, and when the Vampire plays the other teams, if the Vampire wins, he/she can trade one of his/her starting players to the losing team for one of its starting players (at the same position). So as the season goes along, the Vampire gets stronger. I did two leagues last year (both as the Vampire) and lost in the finals in both (argh, Todd Gurley, whom I had Vampired), but lots of fun. I will do them once again and choose from users on the Fantasy Life app.

• I also want to try a «Guillotine» league. My friend Scott Fish tweets about it all the time. Basically, it's a 12-team league where the lowest-scoring team each week gets cut from the league entirely. Then all that team's players are released into the free-agent pool. You keep playing until there is only one team left.

• Finally, a great format is best ball. There are a few places that offer this — I used to be a spokesperson for DRAFT.com and the DRAFT app, so I'm partial to it — but basically, you and others draft a team like normal. And then … you do nothing. No other moves, the league plays out and every week, after the games are done, your best possible lineup is set for you and everyone else in the league. It's a great way to get some real «practice» drafts in that count but have no maintenance beyond the draft.

4. I ask this every year, and we are making great progress, but our work is not done yet. Look, if you've read this far, you're a gamer. You get it. You know how much fun, how awesome, how addictive fantasy football is. You know how it brings people together. So why keep it all to yourself? I am asking once again of everyone reading this:

Make it your goal to convince one person in your life who has never played before to try a league this year. We need more women playing, more kids, more senior citizens. Fantasy football is something everyone can enjoy, so ask your parents, your kids, your neighbor, co-worker, someone.

Come on.

Just one new person.

Help me spread the word. Because my mission on this planet isn't done until every man, woman and child plays fantasy football.

5. Remember, this is a hobby. WE PLAY FOR FUN.

You remember fun, right? Does anyone remember laughter? Fantasy football is a game. A pastime. Something we do to escape our grind, not worry about anything else going on in the world, and have fun while spending time with friends, family and co-workers.

We all get nervous, we all sweat wins, but ultimately … it's a game. Remember that, especially when you feel like embarrassing yourself on social media to harass a player, a coach, a fantasy analyst or a league mate. And go easy on your commissioner. That's a tough job already.

Just calm down, OK? Believe me, I get it. I've been in more than my share of email wars and angry text exchanges in years past. So I'm not being holier than thou. I've been there, my friend.

But please, I beg of you. There's plenty of negativity in the world already; there is absolutely no reason for you to add to it over a hobby, or to lose a friendship over it.

Many thanks to «Thirsty» Kyle Soppe of the Fantasy Focus 06010 podcast and to The Stat-a-Pillar, Damian Dabrowski of The Fantasy Show on ESPN+, for their help with this. And most of all, thanks very much to you. For reading this far and for reading for 21 years. Shots all around.

Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, can't wait! He is the creator of RotoPass.com and one of the owners of the Fantasy Life app and FantasyLife.com.

Editor's note: Some information contained in this column has previously appeared on ESPN.com.

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